High Stakes Poker Snapshot: Negreanu Bluffs Into The Nuts

The Set-Up

Episode Seven is playing even bigger than normal High Stakes Poker with a mandatory $1,600 straddle.

In this hand it’s Tom Dwan’s straddle.

Everyone folds to Daniel Negreanu on the button who raises to $6,500. The two blinds fold and Tom Dwan re-raises his straddle to $23,600.

Negreanu makes the call and the flop comes A♦ A♥ J♥. Dwan c-bets $28,200 into the $49,800 pot.

Negreanu thinks and calls. The turn comes the K♣ and Dwan fires again, this time $56,600.

Daniel Negreanu goes into the tank before raising to $138,600. Dwan chooses to just call the $80kish raise.

The river comes T♠. Dwan checks and Negreanu checks through. Tom Dwan tables the A♠ K♦ for the nuts and Daniel Negreanu mucks J♦ 8♠ face down.

The Breakdown

When it’s folded to Negreanu on the button he raises to $6,500 attempting to pick up the blinds and antes with a somewhat weak J♦ 8♠.

Both the blinds fold and Dwan makes it $23,600 with the A♠ K♦, an obvious three-bet for value.

Because Dwan plays so aggressive and three-bets so often, people are going to end up calling with a much wider range than they would against a tight player.

That said AK is going to be a three-bet for value hand almost always vs a button raiser when there’s a straddle on. Negreanu flats the re-raise with his weak jack.

He probably feels that because he’s around 300k effective deep and in position vs Dwan’s wide re-raising range he’ll be able to out-maneuver him post flop.

Of course this thought is delusional.

The flop drops A♦ A♥ J♥ and Dwan c-bets $28,200 into the $49,800 pot.

Dwan flops trips with a king kicker and doesn’t need to start hammering away with full pot bets.

Betting half pot on the flop and the turn will put enough money in the pot to win be able to win Negreanu’s stack by showdown.

Negreanu makes the call with his two pair aces and jacks with an eight kicker. He’s thinking if Dwan doesn’t have an ace his hand is good.

The turn comes K♣ and Dwan fires a second barrel, this one $56,600 into $106,200.

With a full house Dwan opts to second barrel with the nuts rather than slow play.

When you’re an aggressive player slowpaying isn’t as necessary. You’re betting all the time anyway so people naturally won’t believe you, so there’s no reason to slow down, just keep firing and let your image work for you. People are going to think you’re bluffing anyways.

Negreanu thinks and decides to turn his jacks into a bluff and raises to $138,600.

This play doesn’t really make a whole lot of sense poker theory wise.

The raise is attempting to represent a full house or a made hand, lets for second look past the fact that Daniel Negreanu already made the near nuts twice in this episode and played both extremely passively and showed down both, and just look at what he’s trying to get Dwan to fold.

When Tom Dwan three-bets before the flop and then fires two barrels on an A♦ A♥ J♥ K♣ board his range is polarized.

He either has a monster, or he’s bluffing. There are approximately five different fullhouses he can have, none of which he’s folding with his image.

The only hands Dwan may two barrel only to fold against a raise that are better than Daniel’s jack would be something like A♠ 9♠ or another ace rag hand. But in that case Dwan would likely take a different line realizing that he will not often get three streets of value from a worse hand.

Thus Daniel’s raise in this exact spot only folds out hands he’s already ahead of. It’s another example of “I don’t want you to outplay me so I’m going to try and end the hand right now and oh yeah, I don’t really want to think about ranges at all so I raise.”

So Negreanu raises as a bluff and Dwan elects to just flat call with the nuts. He knows that either Negreanu is bluffing or he has a monster.

The river comes T♠ and Dwan checks.

Dwan realizes that should Negreanu actually have that (smaller) monster he’s going to be shoving the river regardless when checked to and as a bonus if he is bluffing he’s giving Negreanu one last chance on the river.

Negreanu wisely decides not to pull the trigger and checks through. His jacks are obviously no good vs Dwan’s aces full of kings.

Hands like these show you why Dwan’s relentlessly aggressive style is profitable. He coerces his opponents into making terrible errors that they probably wouldn’t make against other opponents.

And Daniel Negreanu continues his poor showing on High Stakes Poker. He has to be the biggest loser dollar-wise that the show has ever seen.

More Strategy Snapshots from High Stakes Poker Season 6:

Episode 6: Good2cRaSZi Bluffing
Episode 5: Welcome to Ivey World
Episode 4: Ivey Goes Vegetarian
Episode 3: Negreanu Bailed Out by River
Episode 2: Hoivold Sent Packing

Episode 1: Hellmuth Felted

High Stakes Poker Season 6 Set To Kick Off

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A Hand Matchup From 2010 World Poker Tour Bay 101 Shooting Star – CardPlayer.com

A Hand Matchup From 2010 World Poker Tour Bay 101 Shooting Star CardPlayer.com With the blinds at 500-1000 with a 100 ante, Player A raised to 2500 from early position, JC Tran called, Katchalov called, Phil Laak called, Jaka reraised …

WPT Foxwoods Final Table Preview Part 2

My momentum was halted three-handed while we traded (relatively) small pots for HOURS. I managed to get away with a one mirrrrrrion chip bluff bluff against Soheil, which isn’t easy against a guy who hates folding!

I’ll leave that one for the broadcast to show though, because it’s just not the same telling the story without having Soheil mumbling, “I think I’m folding the best hand … I’m probably folding the best hand …”

I managed to maintain around ~4.5-6mil for three hours and ~60 hands of three-handed play, which was also three levels since they decided that the length of levels would be dropped from 90 to 60 minutes for the televised final table to force action.

It’s a little ironic that they try to make the tournament even more of a crapshoot when all of the money is on the line. This is something that the WPT should really stop doing…the levels should be LONGER if they’re going to change them! This was one of the only problems with an otherwise decent structure.

I had about half of the chips in play (5.5mil) at 40/80k in the small blind, and Soheil (3.6 million) folded the button. I had A♣ T♠ in the small blind and raised to 200k hoping that Cornel Cimpan would shove his 1.5mil/19 big blind stack in.

I got my wish! Unfortunately, he had A♦ K♥ =(. I forgot to ask him to shove with a worse hand in my head as I raised. Oops. This was basically a cooler in this situation, so I shook it off and was still in good shape. It brought the stacks much closer, though:

Seat 4. Cornel Andrew Cimpan – 3,000,000
Seat 5. Soheil Shamseddin – 3,610,000
Seat 6. Matt “Allinat420″ Stout – 3,980,000

Then it happened. The biggest pot and sickest hand of my entire career that’ll be replaying in my mind for years to come.

I (3.7mil) raised to 200k at 40/80k on the button with 5♥ 6♥. Soheil (3.2mil) called from the big blind after Cornel (3.7mil) folded. The flop came K♥ K♦ 4♥, and Soheil bet 150k. For several reasons I really felt that he had a King, so I just called.

BINK!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! 3♥ on the turn gives me a flush with an open-ended straight-flush draw. Soheil bets 300k, I raise 420k (<3 that number obv) more, and he ships it in my face immediately. Before he can pronouce the ‘n’ in “all in” I’ve already announced a call and turned my hand over.

Soheil shows K♠ 9♣, so he has 10 outs to fill up or make quads on the river and is a little more than a 4:1 dog…

There’s 6.5mil in the pot, and winning this hand would mean going heads-up with Cornel and being guaranteed just under half a million in real money. I’d also have a >2:1 chip lead going into heads-up play, and be playing for $910k and the $25k seat to the Bellagio WPT Championship….

Needless to say, this is the biggest moment of my poker career. But in the world of TV final tables they lovvvvvve to draw out the excitement and suspense.

I stood there over the table for what seemed like approximately 15,343,921 years debating whether I should go stand with my family or be right there to see the card come off the deck. I just couldn’t bring myself to walk away…I just stood there and waited…

…and waited…

and finally the dealer awoke from her coma to deal the river card: 9♥ in my face!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

I let out a heart-felt “GAH!” but quickly went back to shaking Soheil’s hand, saying nice hand, and paying that man hisss monnnnney (OK seriously, I’ve been blogging for years without a single “Rounders” reference … let one slide people).

I was crippled to 445k, which was made worse by the announcement that we’d be playing 60/120k the next hand. I learned a longgggg time ago that you don’t give up no matter how short you are, though. I’ve won a couple tournaments after being crippled to 2-3 big blinds in the mid stages, including my WSOP ring win.

I launched a serious ninja mode assaults and doubled K♠ 8♦ through Cornel’s A♥ 2♠ to get back over a million. I shipped it in repeatedly afterwards and actually managed to get back into 2nd place in chips while Cornel was slipping.

Then I moved in on the button for 1.7 million at 60/120k with K♣ J♣, and Cornel called all in for just under 1.5 million total from the small blind with Q♦ Q♥. Soheil (7.4mil) folded from the big blind, and I whiffed out completely.

Then, while I had 280k going into the big blind of 120k, they took a 10-minute break to change the tapes. Nice timing. Can’t just let a man die in peace!!!

I ended up calling all-in three ways on the next hand, which I should have done without looking at my cards because it’s going to be the correct play regardless of my hand. I made the mistake of looking … and found 3♠ 2♥. BAHHHHH!!!!

I called anyway after briefly trying to talk myself out of it, and was eliminated in 3rd place for $265,710 after Soheil made trips sixes on the flop with A♣ 6♦.

::pauses to roll a blunt before writing the reflective part of this blog…because it just feels right::

A lot of my friends and family expected me to be mad after taking such a huge bad beat. I guess you could look at it a lot of ways, but for me it usually just boils down to how I feel I performed.

I was pretty anxious on breaks when I was thinking about the life-changing money at stake, but at the table I was calm and focused. I feel that I made the best decisions possible with the information I had, and that I really played my best for not just the final table but six consecutive days of the tournament.

In short: Sure, I could be bitter about losing a few hundred thousand in equity when the 9♥ hit, but I’m just happy that I was able to do something I love, do it well, and win over a quarter million at it. When I think of it that way, it’s kind of hard to be mad!

I’d just like to take this opportunity like to thank my family and friends who dropped everything they were doing/called in sick and drove up to Foxwoods as soon as I called to let them know I’d made the final table … even my parents, who were scheduled to go back to work that day after a week of vacation time! 

Without the support of those around me I’d never be where I am today. Thanks SOOOOO much to all of you, from my parents’ down to the people I’ve never met who just read my blog and quietly hope for me to do well.

All of it means a lot more to me than any of you know, and is why that nine on the river will never change that fact that I’m one of the luckiest guys in the world!

Matt Stout

More blog posts from Matt Stout

WPT Foxwoods Final Table Preview Part 1
Stout’s Sunday Report: March 14, 2010
Stout’s Sunday Report: March 7, 2010
Slowrolling at the LAPC $5k

 

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The Greatest Poker Game Ever

The title might seem sensational but I assure you this is the greatest poker variant I have ever played. This is a game guaranteed to spice up that otherwise dull home game.

In fact, this game is so awesome, so terrifically badass, so freakin amazing! I felt I had to write a blog and share it with all of you.

The game is called Sviten Special and it was invented by some Swedish guy named Anders Bengtsson.

Obviously this Bengtsson guy is a player with a sick need for constant degenerate action on every hand. Although I’ve never met the guy, I’m sure him and I would get along well.

I learned the game from a friend of his, Franke Boy. All I have to say is thank you.

Overview

Sviten Special is a split pot game, but not in the way you’re thinking. The game is basically a mix of Pot-Limit Omaha, and Five-Card Draw. Half the pot goes to best draw hand, half the pot to the best Omaha hand.

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High Stakes Poker Snapshot: Welcome to Ivey World

It took five episodes of High Stakes Poker Season 6 to bring us an episode with some real action.

Episode five, which aired yesterday, had just that – and loads of it.

We had Dario spazzing vs durrrr, Gus getting felted for 200k vs. Negreanu, Mercier vs. Ivey and, of course, durrrr three-barelling Ivey.

Any one of those hands would make a great strategy snapshot. But, sadly, we had to narrow it down to the single greatest.

IMO, it’s a close race between Ivey “picking off” Mercier’s bluff and durrrr’s three-barrel.

Though the Ivey-durrrr hand might have been more exciting, I believe there’s more to talk about in the Mercier-Ivey hand.

The durrrr hand was just a sick three-barrel in a three-bet pot. Of course, had Ivey called like he was contemplating with his pair of sixes, we would really have something to talk about.

However, I wouldn’t be able to provide much insight on fifteenth-level soul-reading so it’s a good thing he folded.

The Mercier hand, though, is very interesting and not just because he’s a PokerListings blogger.

Visit PokerListings.com

Snapshot: Welcome to Ivey World

It took five episodes of High Stakes Poker Season 6 to bring us an episode with some real action.

Episode five, which aired yesterday, had just that – and loads of it.

We had Dario spazzing vs durrrr, Gus getting felted for 200k vs. Negreanu, Mercier vs. Ivey and, of course, durrrr three-barelling Ivey.

Any one of those hands would make a great strategy snapshot. But, sadly, we had to narrow it down to the single greatest.

IMO, it’s a close race between Ivey “picking off” Mercier’s bluff and durrrr’s three-barrel.

Though the Ivey-durrrr hand might have been more exciting, I believe there’s more to talk about in the Mercier-Ivey hand.

The durrrr hand was just a sick three-barrel in a three-bet pot. Of course, had Ivey called like he was contemplating with his pair of sixes, we would really have something to talk about.

However, I wouldn’t be able to provide much insight on fifteenth-level soul-reading so it’s a good thing he folded.

The Mercier hand, though, is very interesting and not just because he’s a PokerListings blogger.

Visit PokerListings.com

A Hand Matchup From 2010 PokerStars.com NAPT Venetian – CardPlayer.com

A Hand Matchup From 2010 PokerStars.com NAPT Venetian CardPlayer.com Final table, 10-handed, with the blinds at 25000-50000 and a 5000 ante, Stein raised to 115000, Lichtenberger called. On the flop, Stein checked, …

A Hand Matchup From 2010 PokerStars.com NAPT – CardPlayer.com

A Hand Matchup From 2010 PokerStars.com NAPT CardPlayer.com With the blinds at 800-1600 and a 200 ante, King raised to 4100, Hamilton called in the big blind. On the flop, Hamilton checked, King checked. …

A Hand Matchup From 2010 Pokerstars.com EPT Copenhagen – CardPlayer.com

A Hand Matchup From 2010 Pokerstars.com EPT Copenhagen CardPlayer.com Final table, four-handed, with the blinds at 30000-60000 and a 5000 ante, Kerignard raised to 150000 on the button, Wigg reraised to 355000 from the small … A Hand Matchup From 2010 Pokerstars.com EPT CopenhagenCardPlayer.com all 2 news articles »

Rushing Back to LA for the $3k Six-Max

Rushing back to LA on Sunday night for the $3k shorthanded event at Commerce’s LA Poker Classic proved to be a good idea … sort of.

I managed to get back to LA around 4am and got plenty of sleep before the 4pm event on Monday.

Despite a tough table draw, I started the tournament on a crazy heater and had tripled up in the first two levels (25/50 and 50/100) from a 10k starting stack. I was making hand after hand, even making quads with 4♣ 6♣. Easy game.

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